Flour has disappeared from the shops in Lebanon since the start of March and the price of bread has surged by 70 percent. The shelves are empty at the supermarkets not because of panic buying but because the grocers are hoarding basic goods to sell them at higher prices.
Such is the predicament faced by residents in Lebanon, one of the many Arab nations that are grappling with the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has sent shockwaves through the global food and agricultural commodities markets and supply chains. Agriculture companies are weighing the humanitarian costs of pulling out of Russia, following other Western companies in other sectors. Already fragile household finances have been further upended as food inflation whips its way through the failing economy, with even middle-class families struggling to make ends meet.
Wheat prices are still two-thirds higher than a year ago in the wake of the Russian attack. Riots spread through more than 40 countries around the world in 2007-8 after droughts in key wheat and rice-producing countries led to a food crisis. The UN International Fund for Agricultural Development has warned of an escalation of global hunger and poverty as a result of dislocations caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Lebanon is especially vulnerable because it imports more than 70 percent of its wheat from Ukraine. The problem is compounded by the collapse of its currency, which has lost more than 90 percent of its value since 2019. Even a university lecturer in Lebanon faces difficulty buying bread and basic foods.
Egypt says it has four months’ worth of wheat in the state granaries and the local harvest will start in mid-April. The government has capped the price of unsubsidized bread, which has surged in the weeks following the invasion. In Tunisia, which went through a power transfer eight months ago, the new government under President Kais Saied must find a way to calm panicked shoppers, who have stripped supermarket shelves bare with the expectation of more shortages.
