The fact that only just over half the food on our plates is produced here in the UK could make you believe we are in a great position to meet the demands of UK consumers and pay farmers well for their high-quality output.
A different, less upbeat perspective, however, is that we are, in fact, a target for low-cost imported food, which could, in turn, undercut UK farmers.
See also: Australian trade deal – opportunities and threats to UK farmers
About the author
John Giles is a divisional director with Promar International, the consulting arm of Genus plc.
He has worked in some 60 countries around the world and is the current chairman of the annual City Food and Drink Lecture. Here he argues for a more proactive approach to opening up new markets.
This is undoubtedly the concern of some analysts, who question what future free-trade agreements (FTAs) will mean for UK farmers in terms of competition from other nations with different welfare standards, bigger carbon footprints and less regulation.
Australia and NZ have already concluded comprehensive FTAs with the UK, while the US, Japan, India, and the Gulf states are just a few of the nations and regions with which the UK government has also been negotiating accords.
There have also been preliminary negotiations with the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which covers Canada, Malaysia, Vietnam, Singapore, New Zealand and Peru, potentially providing access to almost 500 million consumers with a combined gross domestic product of £11.2 trillion.
The government’s propensity to enter into FTAs with less regard to the quality or environmental norms of food production was signalled by the signing of the NZ and Australian deals.
FTAs, of course, have major potential benefits, since they increase market access for other sectors, including banking, manufacturing and services. UK plc may profit, but in doing so, may expose agriculture/food to increased risk.
And then there are the challenges of trade with the EU, where, despite having duty-free access to the 27 member states, the ongoing trade friction is a major area of concern and frustration for producers.
Recent data show that, while exports to Europe were up some 45% in the first quarter of 2022, compared with the opening three months of 2019, they were still down by 17%.
Since Brexit, many UK exporters have had to complete more paperwork and wait longer for their exports to be processed.
The fact that the UK government has repeatedly put off imposing similar incoming border checks is a major source of unhappiness. It means that trade friction is felt more on exports, while border disputes remain a source of hostility.
In the volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous (vuca) environment we are seeing in international trade, understanding the nature of opportunities and threats in global markets – which market, when, how and why – is more important than ever.
Future government policy on UK trade seems clear, however. This is away from the relatively mature and well understood markets of the EU and into the emerging economies of Asia and the Gulf.
In these markets, UK farmers and food processors will come up against the “best of the best”. UK producers and food/drink companies will, as a result, need to raise their game to a whole new level.
The reality, however, is that our key market for exports has been, and will be for some time to come, the EU. Solving the issues of trade friction, while building markets in Asia and elsewhere, will take considerable time and effort.
