I am no fan of Xi Jinping, nor of most of his policies. But I recognise that he rules over 20% of the world’s population across China, all of whom wish to eat three meals a day.
He realises that, too. Indeed, despite his dictatorial powers, his survival in office may depend on his ability to ensure that wish is satisfied.
Xi is, it is reported, obsessed with food security and, through a combination of domestic production and imports, has stockpiled 65% of the world’s maize and 53% of its wheat.
See also: New prime minister must put rocket up Defra’s backside
Chinese statistics on such matters are seldom totally accurate, and these figures may be exaggerated.
But, even if they are twice the reality, they indicate that Xi and his advisers have assessed the world’s supply/demand situation and concluded shortages are imminent.
The same evidence they are looking at is available to the British government. The gap between demand and supply of staple commodities is narrowing.
And if droughts like those experienced this year around the world are repeated, as many scientists predict, the lines on the graph will cross – and then we’ll have a real crisis.
And that is without the effects of the war in Ukraine and the closure of fertiliser plants in Britain and Norway.
Government inaction
To those of us dealing with these concerns every day, it seems unbelievable that our government appears so relaxed on such matters.
No need to worry, they say, we can always import anything we want. Do they not realise that the same or greater crises are occurring in those countries from which we habitually import?
But Liz Truss, whose time at Defra a few years ago should have educated her about food and farming, is too busy defending her short time as PM and making “unpopular” decisions.
Current Defra secretary Ranil Jayawardena is probably too new to have any experience to fall back on.
And although farm minister Mark Spencer must understand what’s going on, from running his own farm in Nottinghamshire, he has been demoted from his previous role of chief whip and may be too timid to rock the boat.
If so, he’s changed since I knew him when he was chairman of the National Federation of Young Farmers’ Clubs.
But failure to target urgent support to farming and horticulture runs the risk of farm bankruptcies and food shortages. We’ve already seen what lack of action has done to the pig industry.
Inadequate labour in slaughterhouses and processing plants has led to a reduction in production of 17% – and counting.
Similar labour shortages in horticulture, combined with heating cost rises, have persuaded many growers not to plant for next year and try to sell their sites for houses.
These losses in production potential are permanent, not temporary.
Some arable farmers who bought their fertiliser last year at “cheap” prices and have just had a reasonable harvest might be thinking I am panicking unnecessarily.
To such people I would say: your energy costs will stay high despite the government’s temporary cap; fertiliser prices will be three times higher next year; labour costs will rise in line with the cost of living; borrowing rates are rising; inflation will affect everything you buy; and the Basic Payment Scheme will decline.
In other words, next year and perhaps beyond are going to be far worse than this year. Not a time to relax, I’d say.
