Market uncertainty is causing massive contraction in UK food production, with farmers in nearly every sector planning to scale back in 2023.
This is the warning given to the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Efra) Select Committee on Tuesday (8 November) during an evidence-gathering session on food security and inflation.
NFU president Minette Batters told the committee that all the union’s “intentions” survey work – which looked at farmers’ plans for 2023 – pointed to contraction, particularly among growers.
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“We are seeing huge contraction in the protected crops sector.
“Production of tomatoes and cucumbers are at their lowest levels since records began in 1985, but also field veg – a lot of that is driven by access to labour,” she said.
Milk volume is down, too, and 75% of the NFU’s livestock farmer members plan to use less nitrogen fertiliser next year, further shrinking output.
“There is contraction across pretty much every sector and that’s because of a lack of certainty,” Mrs Batters suggested.
“I don’t think there is any sector that is not being massively impacted, but for horticulture, pigs and poultry, those are extreme.”
Inflation
Although initiatives such as the Energy Bill Relief Scheme had been welcomed, driving down input inflation had to be the ultimate goal, she said, and initiatives explored for “putting our arms around production collectively”.
Ed Barker, head of policy and external affairs at the Agricultural Industries Confederation, told the committee that farmers wanted to invest – for instance, by building sheds to increase output – “but the certainty isn’t there”.
Labour availability is also having a huge impact on production.
“Access to people is really holding growth back, and it goes through the whole supply chain,” said Mrs Batters.
The union leader urged policymakers not to make food production the “poor relation” of tree planting and house building targets, calling for it to be underpinned by new legislation.
She believed that the Land Use Framework for England, announced in June 2022, would present one opportunity to “level-up on food production” by ensuring that it is incorporated within local plans.
Mrs Batters also pointed to statutory targets for nature, for clean water, and for clean air in the Environment Act, as well as housebuilding and tree planting targets.
“We have got nothing on food production at all,” she said, adding that “balance is everything”.
The evidence gathered by the Efra committee will be fed back to the UK government to consider if policy changes and other interventions are needed.
