Livestock and poultry farmers face the dual challenges of high input costs and pressures to meet sustainability targets in 2023, according to global co-operative bank Rabobank.
Despite the costs and elevated prices, meat production is expected to increase, albeit at a slower rate than over the past 12 months, Rabobank suggested in its Global Animal Protein Outlook report.
See also: Tight supply to support global pork trade in 2023
The report predicted a year-on-year growth in the main global markets of 5m tonnes – or 1% – to a total of 430m tonnes next year.
That is below levels seen in 2022, when markets grew by 2%. Much of the growth will be driven by demand for poultry and fish.
This reflects a switch away from high-value red meat cuts to chicken and cheap ready meals by price-conscious shoppers faced with the ongoing cost-of-living crisis.
However, farmers will also be expected to intensify their emissions commitments, adapt to sustainability challenges and cope with animal disease threats, the report said.
It suggested this would require greater investment in data technology, with an increased use of automated equipment and sensors to improve animal health and welfare.
Rabobank animal protein strategist Justin Sherrard said companies had grappled with rising input prices, supply chain disruption and geopolitical strife.
Many of these issues are unresolved as we head into 2023, Mr Sherrard said.
“We therefore expect prices to remain high next year, even as the market enjoys steady production growth on the back of a growing supply of aquaculture and poultry.”
He pointed out that the rise in poultry production masked reductions in beef and pork supplies.
Beef supply had been hit by years of drought in the US, while disease and market disruption due to the Covid-19 pandemic had weakened pork markets in the UK and Europe.
Rabobank outlook
North America
Beef will contract as the US cycle turns and enters a multi-year decline. Poultry will expand on strong demand, despite disease pressure, while pork will stabilise.
Europe
Production will come under pressure for all species because of disease risks, market and regulatory driven changes, and reduced exports. Consumption is expected to hold steady, with poultry benefiting while pork and beef will decline slightly.
China
Pork production will see marginal growth, with food-service restrictions still suppressing demand. Poultry is expected to expand slightly, held back by high costs and uncertainties. Beef will ease.
Brazil
Beef production will continue to expand, supported by exports. Chicken and pork production are also set for expansion and export gains.
Australia and New Zealand
Australia’s beef and sheepmeat production is expected to expand on the back of herd/flock dynamics. In New Zealand, however, beef and sheepmeat production is expected to decline on market pressure.
